1991 N

1991 N.L. PLAYOFF PREVIEW

NL EAST CHAMPION KITSILANO HEDGEHOGS VS NL WEST CHAMPI= ON RED BLUFF ROUGH RIDERS

Kitsilano reigned supreme in the NL East in 1986 and 1= 987, fell off dramatically in 88 and 89, began the climb back last year with 90 = wins and a second place finish and finally reached the summit again this year wi= th a fine 95-67 record. Led by the leagues best pitching staff which in turn was led by Jimmy Key, they manage= d, in turn, to score enough runs even though the offensive leaders were light = hitting Brett Butler and Ozzie Smith. Red Bluff on the other hand won their first divisional title on the strength of= the NL’s best scoring offense, led by power hitters Harold Baines, Ron Ga= nt and Fred McGriff. The big thr= ee on the mound, Browning, Cone and Benes won 51 games and Mark Eicchorn was the = ace closer of the league. Congratulations to managers John Saunders of Kitsilano and Marc Hollingsworth of Red Bluff for top notch seasons.

Now on to the matchups.

Catcher

KITSILANO-Tom Pagnozzi, 3-52-.269

RED BLUFF-Ron Hassey, 3-20-.261

Nothing much to write home about here. Hassey splits time with Karkovice = who has a little more power. Pagnozzi= has a Vg throwing arm and can play more games so let’s give the edge to Pagnozzi.

1^st Base

KITSILANO-Jeff Bagwell, 15-102-.258

RED BLUFF-Fred McGriff, 18-84-.269

Youngster Bagwell had a decent season despite somewhat underachieving his real life stats. McGriff, however, bested his young counterpart in all key offensive categories except SB’s and therefore the edge goes to McGriff.

2^nd Base

KITSILANO-Kelly, Ready, Backman

RED BLUFF-Bip Roberts, 2-25-.296

Roberts is a speedy table setter with good onbase skills. He’s a little r= agged versus lefties but Dale Sveum can platoon with him. The Kitsilano troika is mediocre a= t best and the edge goes strongly to Roberts.

3^rd Base

KITSILANO-Ernie Riles and Pat Kelly

RED BLUFF-Wade Boggs, 5-75-.310

See 2^nd Base above. Boggs is a tablesetter, albeit wit= hout speed, and Riles and Kelly are part of another mediocre infield platoon. Big edge to Boggs.

Shortstop

KITSILANO-Ozzie Smith, 3-33-.321

RED BLUFF-Mike Gallego, 13-56-.246

Mike Gallego had a good year considering he is, well, = Mike Gallego. However, the Wiz per= ks up the Hedgehog dismal infield ratings with an outstanding tablesetting year.<= span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> .399 oba, 24 steals and webgems aplenty. Smith wins this matc= hup easily.

Leftfield

KITSILANO-Kevin Bass, 13-51-.235

RED BLUFF-Luis Polonia, 3-60-.322

Did you ever think that Luis Polonia would be the best leftfielder in any league he ever played in. It’s true. Polonia created 18 more runs than = George Bell to lead all NL leftfielders. .381 oba plus 44 sb’s will create a lot of runs at the to= p of the order. Bass will get help against lefties from Gerald Perry, but more help is needed to top Little Luis. Edge goes to Polonia.

Centerfield

KITSILANO-Brett Butler, 6-64-.328

RED BLUFF-Ron Gant, 27-104-.249

Hard to believe that Butler created 27 more runs than = Gant, but he also created more than any other NL centerfielder including Griffey = The Kid. However, a .435 on base = is more than a little impressive. It seems strange to give the advantage to Butler but Gant’s batting aver= age and poor steal ratio reduce his offensive value a bit too much. Edge goes to Butler.

Rightfield

KITSILANO-Marquis Grissom, 7-60-.247

RED BLUFF-Harold Baines, 26-83-.331

Grissom lost his biggest source of value by underachie= ving bigtime versus lefties compared to his real life season. Nonetheless, Baines turned in a gr= eat season and gets the big edge here.

Bench

KITSILANO-Salas, Perry, Backman, Backman, Grebeck, Ven= able

RED BLUFF-Hassey, Martinez, Yelding, Sveum, Felix, Jones

Martinez<= /st1:place> and Felix had good years with the bat and that gives the edge to Red Bluff.=

Overall Offense

Red Bluff wins the offensive matchups 5-3. During the regular season Red Bluff bested Kitsilano by .020 ba, .020 oba and .040 slg. Despite this they only outscored t= he Hedgehogs by 30 runs, which suggests to me that Kitsilano is an opportunist= ic offense(139 steals, doesn’t strike out much). Despite some of the obvious matchup mismatchs above, I’ll only give a slight nod to Red Bluff in this category.

Pitching Matchups

STARTER

KITSILANO &= nbsp; &nbs= p; &= nbsp; RED BLUFF

Jimmy Key, 19-7, 2.36&= nbsp; David Cone, 19-7, 3.25

Tim Belcher, 15-9, 3.04 &n= bsp; Andy Benes, 16-9, 3.08

Mark Langston, 16-7, 2.48 = Tom Browning, 16-12, 3.42

Doug Drabek, 11-10, 3.98 &= nbsp; Mark Leiter, 8-4, 2.81

John Burkett, 8-10, 3.58 &= nbsp; Alex Fernandez, 10-13, 4.31

These are two very evenly matched starting staffs. There are no great platoon splits = here that can really bite you in the playoffs versus a top notch team. My guess is that either Drabek or Burkett for Kitsilano and Fernandez for Red Bluff end up in long relief. So often pitching succ= ess has a lot to do with where the ball lands after being hit(in other words, luck). I think luck and the o= ther teams offensive prowess will determine more of the result than these fine t= wo staffs. I’m going to ra= te this matchup too close to call.

BULLPEN

KITSILANO &= nbsp; &nbs= p; &= nbsp; RED BLUFF

Jeff Bra= ntley, 11-6, 3.27 &nb= sp; = Bob Patterson, 4-7, 5.94

Jeff Crews, 8-2, 5.06&= nbsp; &nbs= p; &= nbsp; Goose Gossage, 8-2, 3.27

Jeff Lancaster, 1-1, 2.54 = Mike Schooler, 3-5, 3.46

Steve Bedrosian, 5-2, 3.99 = ; Dennis Lamp, 1-1, 3.81

Bryan Harvey, 3-4, 2.33, 34 Saves Mark Eichhorn, 1-0, 1.27, 44 Saves

Two relief staffs of average abilities dominated by a = big time closer. With two excelle= nt starting staffs this series may be decided by whichever team closes the gap more between starter and closer. I’ll give the slightest of edge to Red Bluff just because Eichhorn had such a dominant = year.

FEARLESS PREDICTION

This is a tough series to predict since these teams ar= e so evenly statistically matched. I think it’s going to come down to that surprise player who rises to the occasion and becomes an instant, if fleeting, celebrity for his great play = in the spotlight. However, I mus= t make a call and I’ll go with my initial gut reaction upon my first glances= at these teams and I will pick Red Bluff in seven games. Good luck to both teams.