1991 N.L. PLAYOFF PREVIEW

NL EAST CHAMPION KITSILANO HEDGEHOGS VS NL WEST CHAMPION RED
BLUFF ROUGH RIDERS

Kitsilano reigned supreme in the NL East in 1986 and 1987,
fell off dramatically in 88 and 89, began the climb back last year with 90 wins
and a second place finish and finally reached the summit again this year with a
fine 95-67 record.  Led by the
leagues best pitching staff which in turn was led by Jimmy Key, they managed,
in turn, to score enough runs even though the offensive leaders were light hitting
Brett Butler and Ozzie Smith.  Red
Bluff on the other hand won their first divisional title on the strength of the
NL’s best scoring offense, led by power hitters Harold Baines, Ron Gant
and Fred McGriff.  The big three on
the mound, Browning, Cone and Benes won 51 games and Mark Eicchorn was the ace
closer of the league.
Congratulations to managers John Saunders of Kitsilano and Marc
Hollingsworth of Red Bluff for top notch seasons.

Now on to the matchups.

Catcher

KITSILANO-Tom Pagnozzi, 3-52-.269

RED BLUFF-Ron Hassey, 3-20-.261

Nothing much to write home about here.  Hassey splits time with Karkovice who has
a little more power.  Pagnozzi has a
Vg throwing arm and can play more games so let’s give the edge to
Pagnozzi.

1st Base

KITSILANO-Jeff Bagwell, 15-102-.258

RED BLUFF-Fred McGriff, 18-84-.269

Youngster Bagwell had a decent season despite somewhat
underachieving his real life stats.
McGriff, however, bested his young counterpart in all key offensive
categories except SB’s and therefore the edge goes to McGriff.

2nd Base

KITSILANO-Kelly, Ready, Backman

RED BLUFF-Bip Roberts, 2-25-.296

Roberts is a speedy table setter with good onbase
skills.  He’s a little ragged
versus lefties but Dale Sveum can platoon with him.  The Kitsilano troika is mediocre at best
and the edge goes strongly to Roberts.

3rd Base

KITSILANO-Ernie Riles and Pat Kelly

RED BLUFF-Wade Boggs, 5-75-.310

See 2nd Base above.  Boggs is a tablesetter, albeit without
speed, and Riles and Kelly are part of another mediocre infield platoon.  Big edge to Boggs.

Shortstop

KITSILANO-Ozzie Smith, 3-33-.321

RED BLUFF-Mike Gallego, 13-56-.246

Mike Gallego had a good year considering he is, well, Mike
Gallego.  However, the Wiz perks up
the Hedgehog dismal infield ratings with an outstanding tablesetting year.  .399 oba, 24 steals and webgems
aplenty.  Smith wins this matchup
easily.

Leftfield

KITSILANO-Kevin Bass, 13-51-.235

RED BLUFF-Luis Polonia, 3-60-.322

Did you ever think that Luis Polonia would be the best
leftfielder in any league he ever played in.  It’s true.  Polonia created 18 more runs than George
Bell to lead all NL leftfielders.
.381 oba plus 44 sb’s  will create a lot of runs at the top of
the order.  Bass will get help
against lefties from Gerald Perry, but more help is needed to top Little
Luis.  Edge goes to Polonia.

Centerfield

KITSILANO-Brett Butler, 6-64-.328

RED BLUFF-Ron Gant, 27-104-.249

Hard to believe that Butler created 27 more runs than Gant,
but he also created more than any other NL centerfielder including Griffey The
Kid.  However, a .435 on base is
more than a little impressive.  It
seems strange to give the advantage to Butler but Gant’s batting average
and poor steal ratio reduce his offensive value a bit too much.  Edge goes to Butler.

Rightfield

KITSILANO-Marquis Grissom, 7-60-.247

RED BLUFF-Harold Baines, 26-83-.331

Grissom lost his biggest source of value by underachieving
bigtime versus lefties compared to his real life season.  Nonetheless, Baines turned in a great
season and gets the big edge here.

Bench

KITSILANO-Salas, Perry, Backman, Backman, Grebeck, Venable

RED BLUFF-Hassey, Martinez,
Yelding, Sveum, Felix, Jones

Martinez
and Felix had good years with the bat and that gives the edge to Red Bluff.

Overall Offense

Red Bluff wins the offensive matchups 5-3.  During the regular season Red Bluff
bested Kitsilano by .020 ba, .020 oba and .040 slg.  Despite this they only outscored the
Hedgehogs by 30 runs, which suggests to me that Kitsilano is an opportunistic
offense(139 steals, doesn’t strike out much).  Despite some of the obvious matchup
mismatchs above, I’ll only give a slight nod to Red Bluff in this
category.

Pitching Matchups

STARTER

KITSILANO                                       RED
BLUFF

Jimmy Key, 19-7, 2.36             David
Cone, 19-7, 3.25

Tim Belcher, 15-9, 3.04                       Andy
Benes, 16-9, 3.08

Mark Langston, 16-7, 2.48                  Tom
Browning, 16-12, 3.42

Doug Drabek, 11-10, 3.98                   Mark
Leiter, 8-4, 2.81

John Burkett, 8-10, 3.58                      Alex
Fernandez, 10-13, 4.31

These are two very evenly matched starting staffs.  There are no great platoon splits here
that can really bite you in the playoffs versus a top notch team.  My guess is that either Drabek or
Burkett for Kitsilano and Fernandez for Red Bluff end up in long relief.    So often pitching success
has a lot to do with where the ball lands after being hit(in other words,
luck).  I think luck and the other
teams offensive prowess will determine more of the result than these fine two
staffs.  I’m going to rate
this matchup too close to call.

BULLPEN

KITSILANO                                       RED
BLUFF

Jeff  Brantley,
11-6, 3.27                      Bob
Patterson, 4-7, 5.94

Jeff Crews, 8-2, 5.06                           Goose
Gossage, 8-2, 3.27

Jeff Lancaster, 1-1, 2.54                       Mike
Schooler, 3-5, 3.46

Steve Bedrosian, 5-2, 3.99                   Dennis
Lamp, 1-1, 3.81

Bryan Harvey, 3-4, 2.33, 34 Saves       Mark Eichhorn, 1-0, 1.27, 44
Saves

Two relief staffs of average abilities dominated by a big
time closer.  With two excellent
starting staffs this series may be decided by whichever team closes the gap
more between starter and closer.
I’ll give the slightest of edge to Red Bluff just because
Eichhorn  had such a dominant year.

FEARLESS PREDICTION

This is a tough series to predict since these teams are so
evenly statistically matched.  I
think it’s going to come down to that surprise player who rises to the
occasion and becomes an instant, if fleeting, celebrity for his great play in
the spotlight.  However, I must make
a call and I’ll go with my initial gut reaction upon my first glances at
these teams and I will pick Red Bluff in seven games.  Good luck to both teams.