NATIONAL
LEAGUE WEST PREVIEW

Here's a
quick preview of the 1990 National League East.  I'll give a quick rundown of each team

and who I think will be contenders and who will be non contenders.  Won-Loss Record is a

projection using runs created for both the offense and pitching and
applying them to the

Bill James Pythagorean theorem.  I did this after adjusting runs created
for each team to 5500 AB's and 1450 innings pitched-the average for 1990
National League teams.

NOTE-This
is probably the tightest division with win projections from 73-81.  All teams could be

competitive for the division crown, but may have trouble in the
playoffs.

BEARD
BLACK CATS(79-83)

Steady
Eddie Murray and Dave Justice are the heart of the offense and will create a
lot of runs

between them.  Sheffield
is a good support player but lacks power you want out of the hot

corner.  Dunston has assets but his OBA can hurt a team.  Treadway has
excellent defense

at second and had a decent season at the plate.  Beyond that there are role and
situational

players who will not give enough support to the big two.  Chuck Finley and Roger Clemens

form one of the better 1-2 tandems in the league.  Cary and Liebrandt
are decent 3 and 4's

and the 5th spot is problematic.
Bullpen is a problem with Lefferts and Lee
Smith the only

true full-time pitchers.  The
rest of the relief will come from converted starters and none of

them offer much excitement.  The
big two batters and big two pitchers will not be enough,

but, in a balanced division, who knows.

CEDAR
RAPID CYCLONES(79-83)

Having
Franklin Stubbs as your big power hitter can make for a long season.  However, this

team is built around some good secondary players who have doubles
power.  Jefferies, Puckett,

Seitzer and Mookie Wilson can all bang
the wall off the ball and have some basepath speed.

Duncan
had one of his better years and some nice support will be given from the likes
of Olerud,

Walton, Slaught, Carter, Reynolds
and Junior Ortiz.  Perhaps this mix and match formula can

lift them up a few notches.
Starting is a problem with the top three of Moore, Anderson and

Walk being league average types at best.  Not much help either from the rest of
the starting

corps.  Gets a little better with
the infamous Larry Anderson(traded by Houston to
Boston for

young 3B prospect Jeff Bagwell) having a monster year out of the pen.  Schatzeder,
Plunk and

Veres offer decent setup choices.
If pitchers overachieve they could compete.

KANSAS STORM(81-81)

The Kid
has arrived on the scene and Griffey the younger will
be the centerpiece of the Storm

offense.  Barfield can
still bang a few longballs and offers a righthanded counterpoint in the

middle of the lineup.
Hit or miss Rob Deer should bang about 30 taters and Lance Johnson is

the speed portion of the lineup.
The other Ripken(Billy) had his career year and handles 2B nicely. Not much
help beyond the above mentioned but Martinez, Candaele
and Schofield turn in decent part time performances.  Doc Gooden is the stud at the top of the
rotation and #2 Jack Morris is #2 only because of who's #1.  Don Robinson, Mike Witt and Norm
Charlton make a not so shabby 3-5 to make for a solid rotation.  Like Beard the pen features only two
full-time pitchers, Carmen and Akerfelds, both of
whom are decent.  They do have
several small-time pitchers with decent stats (Aquino,
Harris, Poole, Norris) they can patchwork into the
mix.  Does a best projection 81 wins
equal a division?  Check back in the
fall.

KNOXVILLE
BLUE JAYS(73-89)

A decent
enough offense with Ripken, Grace, Lonnie Smith, Surhoff and Browne being the best

of the bunch.  They could
probably use a deep threat since Ripken leads the
team in homers

with only 21.  Bottom order guys
like Snyder, Balboni, Pettis, King and Boston offer
some power

but on base is hard to find and should hamper run production.  Fans will get a taste of young

Ray Lankford at the beginning of his good career.  Pitching is the real problem here.  Dennis

Rasmussen
is the only starter with over 30 starts available and he's not that good.  Danny Jackson can step out 23 times and
then it's a collection of journeymen with high WHIPS who promise to keep the
Knoxville defense on their toes.  It
doesn't get much better in the pen with Duane Ward the only dominant reliever
in sight.  He also is surrounded by
high WHIP journeymen.  It's safe to say
that this is probably the only team without a chance of winning the division.

RED BLUFF
ROUGH RIDERS(80-82)

On base
guys Wade Boggs and Bip Roberts will set the table
very nicely and the Bipster has

speed to go with his on-base.  30
homer guys Gant and McGriff form a very good
left-right power

tandem in the 3 and 4 slots and should have plenty of RBI opportunites.
Harold Baines is also

on hand to offer some power and onbase from the
5 hole.  Polonia
can offer onbase and speed,

Yelding can offer speed, Felix and Kittle
can offer a little power.  This
offense is a good mix

of speed, power and onbase and should score
enough runs to keep them in contention.
Starting

looks good also with Cone, Browning and Benes
forming a good front three capable of 100+ starts. The other 60 starts will
come from lesser lights like Howell, Farrell and Fernandez and will probably keep
the team from dominating the division.
Bob Patterson and Schooler are dominant
relievers and will get decent support from Candelaria,
Camp and Eichhorn.  This team has a real good shot at  the division
crown.

WABASH RIVERS(77-85)

Wil Clark, Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, Paul Molitor
and Alan Trammell form a very good veteran corps.  Zeile and Moseby will add some power and Steinbach is still on hand
to spell Zeile behind the plate.  Decent role players like Ward, Lavalliere, Gilkey and Griffey the Elder will fill in nicely when called upon to
start.  A good, if
workmanlike offense.  Dennis
Martinez and Boddicker will take the ball 70 times
and are a good 1-2 punch.  The rest
of the bunch(Combs, Knudson, Avery and Clary) are
average or worse and will keep the bullpen busy.  This is not a bullpen that should be
kept busy.  When
Terry Leach is your best reliever that pretty much says it all.  He'll get limited support from Oliveras but Murphy and Wild Thing Williams are very
hittable.  Wabash has seen some good
years but fans may have to endure a bumpy ride in '90.