NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST PREVIEW

= NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST PREVIEW

Her= e's a quick preview of the 1990 National League East. I'll give a quick rundown of each = team

and who I think will be contenders and who will be non contenders. Won-Loss Record is a

projection using runs created for both the offense and pitching and applying them to the

Bill James Pythagorean theorem. I did this after adjusting runs cr= eated for each team to 5500 AB's and 1450 innings pitched-the average for 1990 National League teams.

NOT= E-This is probably the tightest division with win projections from 73-81. All teams could be

competitive for the division crown, but may have trouble in the playoffs.

BEA= RD BLACK CATS(79-83)

Ste= ady Eddie Murray and Dave Justice are the heart of the offense and will create a lot of runs

between them. She= ffield is a good support player but lacks power you want out of the hot=

corner. Dunston has assets but his OBA can hurt a team. Treadway has excellent defense

at second and had a decent season at the plate. Beyond that there are role and situational

players who will not give enough support to the big two. Chuck Finley and Roger Clemens

form one of the better 1-2 tandems in the league. Cary and Lieb= randt are decent 3 and 4's

and the 5th spot is problematic. Bullpen is a problem with Lefferts and L= ee Smith the only

true full-time pitchers. T= he rest of the relief will come from converted starters and none of=

them offer much excitement. The big two batters and big two pitchers will not be enough,<= /p>

but, in a balanced division, who knows.

CED= AR RAPID CYCLONES(79-83)

Hav= ing Franklin Stubbs as your big power hitter can make for a long season. However, this

team is built around some good secondary players who have doubles power. Jefferies, Puckett,

Seitzer and Mookie Wilson can all b= ang the wall off the ball and have some basepath sp= eed.

Dun= can had one of his better years and some nice support will be given from the li= kes of Olerud,

Walton, Slaught, Carter, Rey= nolds and Junior Ortiz. Perhaps this mix and match formula= can

lift them up a few notches. Starting is a problem with the top three of Moore, Anderson and

Walk being league average types at best. Not much help either from the rest= of the starting

corps. Gets a little better= with the infamous Larry Anderson(traded by Houston to Boston for

young 3B prospect Jeff Bagwell) having a monster year out of the pen. Schatzeder, Plunk and

Veres offer decent setup choices. If pitchers overachieve they could compete.

KAN= SAS STORM(81-81)

The= Kid has arrived on the scene and Griffey the younge= r will be the centerpiece of the Storm

offense. Barfield= can still bang a few longballs and offers a righthanded counterpoint in the

middle of the lineup. Hit or miss Rob Deer should bang about 30 taters and Lance Johnson i= s

the speed portion of the lineup. The other Ripken(Billy) had his career year and handles 2B nicely. Not= much help beyond the above mentioned but Martinez, Candaele= and Schofield turn in decent part time performances. Doc Gooden is the stud at the top = of the rotation and #2 Jack Morris is #2 only because of who's #1. Don Robinson, Mike Witt and Norm Charlton make a not so shabby 3-5 to make for a solid rotation. Like Beard the pen features only t= wo full-time pitchers, Carmen and Akerfelds, both = of whom are decent. They do have several small-time pitchers with decent stats (Aquino<= /span>, Harris, Poole, Norris) they can patchwork into t= he mix. Does a best projection 8= 1 wins equal a division? Check back = in the fall.

KNO= XVILLE BLUE JAYS(73-89)

A d= ecent enough offense with Ripken, Grace, Lonnie Smith= , Surhoff and Browne being the best

of the bunch. They could probably use a deep threat since Ripken leads t= he team in homers

with only 21. Bottom order= guys like Snyder, Balboni, Pettis, King and Boston o= ffer some power

but on base is hard to find and should hamper run production. Fans will get a taste of young

Ray Lankford at the beginning of his good career.= Pitching is the real problem here.= Dennis

Ras= mussen is the only starter with over 30 starts available and he's not that good. Danny Jackson can step out 23 time= s and then it's a collection of journeymen with high WHIPS who promise to keep the Knoxville defense on their toes. It doesn't get much better in the pen with Duane Ward the only dominant reliev= er in sight. He also is surround= ed by high WHIP journeymen. It's sa= fe to say that this is probably the only team without a chance of winning the divisio= n.

RED= BLUFF ROUGH RIDERS(80-82)

On = base guys Wade Boggs and Bip Roberts will set the ta= ble very nicely and the Bipster has

speed to go with his on-base. 30 homer guys Gant and McGriff form a very good left-right power

tandem in the 3 and 4 slots and should have plenty of RBI opportunites. Harold Baines is also

on hand to offer some power and onbase fro= m the 5 hole. = Polonia can offer onbase and speed,

Yelding can offer speed, Felix and K= ittle can offer a little power. This offense is a good mix

of speed, power and onbase and should score enough runs to keep them in contention.&nb= sp; Starting

looks good also with Cone, Browning and Benes forming a good front three capable of 100+ starts. The other 60 starts will come from lesser lights like Howell, Farrell and Fernandez and will probabl= y keep the team from dominating the division.&nbs= p; Bob Patterson and Schooler are dominant relievers and will get decent support from Candelaria<= /span>, Camp and Eichhorn. This team has a real good shot at the d= ivision crown.

WAB= ASH RIVERS(77-85)

Wil Clark, Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, Paul Molitor= and Alan Trammell form a very good veteran corps. Zeile = and Moseby will add some power and Steinbach is still on = hand to spell Zeile behind the plate. Decent role players like Ward, Lavalliere, Gilkey and Griffey the Elder will fill in nicely when called upo= n to start. A = good, if workmanlike offense. D= ennis Martinez and Boddicker will take the ball 70 ti= mes and are a good 1-2 punch. The= rest of the bunch(Combs, Knudson, Avery and Clary) are average or worse and will keep the bullpen busy. This is not a bullpen that should = be kept busy. When Terry Leach is your best reliever that pretty much says it all. He'll get limited support from Oliveras but Murphy and Wild Thing Williams are very hittable. Wabash has seen som= e good years but fans may have to endure a bumpy ride in '90.