NATIONAL
LEAGUE EAST PREVIEW

Here's a
quick preview of the 1990 National League East.  I'll give a quick rundown of each team

and who I think will be contenders and who will be non contenders.  Won-Loss Record is a

projection using runs created for both the offense and pitching and
applying them to the

Bill James Pythagorean theorem.  I did this after adjusting runs created
for each team to 5500 AB's and 1450 innings pitched-the average for 1990
National League teams.

CLEVELAND
BUCKEYES(76-86)

This is a
team with a lot of players who are good support players(Roberto
Kelly, Tom Brunansky,

Jose Oquendo, Terry Pendleton, Milt Thompson) or players not in
their prime years(Pedro Guerrero, Larry Walker).  Darrin Daulton
has a nice year and is a definite All-Star candidate at catcher.  But no one takes a star turn in '90 that
would be the centerpiece of the lineup and could drive this team into contention
status.  Still, I think the
projection is a little low and a good starting corps could move this team
closer to a .500 record and up the standings.  Jim Deshaies,
Todd Stottlemyre, Matt Young, Jack  Armstrong, Mark Gardner and David
Wells all have good years.  A decent
pen highlighted by Mark Williamson will give nice support to the starters.  If they can stay close
through July maybe pitching will drive them in divisional contention.

COLORADO GRIZZLIES(69-93)

Not a bad
offense, perhaps the second best in the division.  Jose Canseco
turns in a star year with 37 homers and 19 steals.  Two other youngsters turn in good
seasons.  Catcher Craig Biggio

provides that rarity, speed at catcher, with a decent bat.  Rafael Palmiero
jacks things up a little at

firstbase as his power comes to the
fore.  Jacoby, Samuel, Webster and
Sheets have double digit

homers, Dickie Thon holds down the
keystone nicely and Shane Mack has a sweet 300 at bats.

The
serious problems start with the starters.
Joe Magrane would be welcome on any staff in
the league, but, LaPoint, Hawkins, Petry, Show and company will be hitting the showers early
quite often this year. The bullpen will help some, but, the three who turn in
good years, Rogers, Agosto and Righetti
are all lefties.  No stud righthanders to balance a pen that will get a lot of
work.  Keep your lefty killers available
for late duty when playing the Grizzlies.

GROSSE
POINTE GIANTS(73-89)

Oh,
wouldn't you love to have 1990 AL MVP Rickey Henderson in your lineup?  28 dings, .439 OBA  and 65 swipes.  Kent Hrbek,
Dwight Evans and Bo Jackson will compliment him nicely, but Gaetti,
Ray, Griffin and Wilson form a weak second half of the lineup that contrasts
starkly with the top half or the order.
Not much help from the bench either for a lineup that needs the top four
for most of their run production.
Mike Scott doesn't dominate like in years past but is still a decent
anchor for the rotation.  2 and 3
guys Bielecki and Jeff Robinson could get roughed up
a bit but John Tudor and young Ben McDonald have 42 potential quality starts
they can trot out.  The pen is a
good one led by Guetterman, Montgomery, Crawford with some help from Atlee Hamaker.  .500 would be a success for the Giants.

KITSILANO
HEDGEHOGS(78-84)

When
Brett Butler is your best player and no player has more that 9 homers(part-timer Mark Salas leads the team with 9) then
runs will be hard to come by.  And
the dropoff from Butler to  big atbat
guys like Ozzie Smith, Gerald Perry and Phil Bradley is big.  Wally Backman
turns in a nice year but only has 315 at bats.  After him there are
enough bonus and role players that fans will need a scorecard for each game to
track the shifting starting lineups thrown out this year.  What keeps this team afloat is the best
pitching staff in the division and one of the best in the league.  Mark Langston, Doug Drabek,
John Burkett, Jimmy Key and Tim Belcher should be the envy of most managers in
the league.  They'll keep games
close and hand it over to a decent pen headed by Jeff Brantley and Bryan
Harvey.  Can pitching and speed win
a pennant?  Stay tuned.

NISKAYANA
MICROMETS(79-83)

The MM's have a decent set of players but no guys in the heart
of the order to consistently pound

the fences and create runs.
Alvin Davis is the best of the bunch but only had 24 doubles and 17

longballs and would be an excellent support
player on a contender.  Players like
Sax, Caminiti,

Devon
White, Sandy Alomar and Devereaux
don't have their top years and young stars like

Tartabull, Hal Morris and Brian McRae have their best years
ahead.  The heart of this team is

the rotation.  Smoltz, Ramon Martinez, Tapani,
Smiley and even Dana Kiecker form an excellent

crew and need to keep things close since the pen is average at best.  Hernandez, Grant, Plesac,

Henneman, Patterson and Mills will have to overperform
for this team to climb over .500

RUPPERT MUNDYS(93-69)

Saving
the best for last we come to one of the better teams in the league and a strong
contender

for some late fall playing time.
Mark McGwire and Ryne
Sandberg are the big bombers in the heart of the order and Mike Greenwell,
Kevin McReynolds, Andy Van Slyke and Edgar Martinez
all turn in star seasons and give promises of lots of runs lighting up the Ruppert scoreboard.
They're supported by a decent cast of Owen, Vaughn, Howell, Valle and
Leach.  Bob Welch, Scott Sanderson Zane
Smith, Greg Harris, Brian Holman and Danny Darwin are all good starters and
will have to hold the fort deep into games to keep a so-so pen in the pen.  But, with the offense and the starters clicking
on all cylinders and the rest of the division not looking great, this team may
not have to worry about the pen until playoff time.