AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST PREVIEW

= AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST PREVIEW

Her= e's a quick preview of the 1990 American League West. I'll give a quick rundown of each = team

and= who I think will be contenders and who will be non contenders. Won-Loss Record is a

pro= jection using runs created for both the offense and pitching and applying them to t= he

Bill James Pythagorean theorem. I = did this after adjusting runs created for each team to 5500 AB's

and= 1450 innings pitched-the average for 1990 National League teams.

BAL= TIMORE REDBIRDS(98-64)

On = base percentage is the hallmark of this team.&n= bsp; With a .353 OBA, this team is the league best

and= is .028 over the league average. And it runs deep with the top twelve at bat guys all having <= /p>

OBA= 's of .342 or better. A lot of old reliables return in Baltimore's quest to reacquire the divisional

tit= le. Gwynn, Franco, Phillips, Tettleton, Fitzgerald all return and Barry Bonds begins to emerge

as = a huge presence in the middle of the order. Rookies Maas and Fryman will help with some

nee= ded power from the left and right on a part-time basis. Team speed is a big asset also.

Lot= s of familiar faces on the pitching staff and the rotation will be anchored by V= iola and Whitson.

Hou= gh, Harnisch, Tanana and Wilson form a decent mix and match 3-5. The bullpen is deep

and offers plenty of good options when the starters falter. Very strong contender here.

BRO= OKLYN BRIDEGROOMS(77-85)

Geo= rge Brett and Matt Williams cover the corners and form a nice middle of the ord= er punch.

Alo= mar will set the table and Calderon and Orsulak are good in supporting roles. The rest of

the lineup is shaky and production will drop off sharply after the 5 man bats.<= span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> Glavine, Portugal,

and Candiotti are the big three of the rotation but none is a dominant pitcher. The 4 and 5 slots

wil= l be slopped together, but Tomlin will trot out 13 potentially good starts. Aguilera and Thigpen

are= sharp in the pen and are supported by decent lefties Orosco and Honeycutt. With a little luck

and= a few breaks this team could top .500.

CHI= CAGO ZEPHYRS(71-91)

The= fact that Chris James is probably the best player says it all for the '90 versio= n of this team.

Inc= aviglia can pound the longball, but he's notoriously hit and miss. Guillen and Herr, the only

oth= er two players over 500 ab's had very average years. Sharperson, Pasqua, Joyner, Leyrit= z

and Kennedy will beef up the lineup but all are sub 400 ab guys. Mike Morgan is the top starter,

but= had a pretty average season. Appier= 's the best but can only trot out 26 times. Terrell, Gross

and= a cast of thousands don't offer much help.&n= bsp; Robinson, Long, Jones, Hall and Klink have the

most games of the relievers but shouldn't offer much relief to Chitown fans. Long season ahead

for= the Zephs.

FRA= NKFORT FORTRESS(96-66)

Whe= reas the rival Redbirds will wear down pitching staffs by putting runners on bas= e, the Fortress

wil= l use the blunt hammer approach and pound the longball. Led by the large Cecil Fielder,

tri= umphantly returning after subduing the Nippon empire, this team will use his 51 tater= s, Gruber's

31, HoJo's 23, and Sierra's, Sosa's, Teufal's, Hayes's and Fisk's double figure homers to club

opp= osing pitchers senseless. There's a= lso some good team speed to make this team less than

one dimensional. The rub may lie = in the rotation where nobody is an intimidator.&n= bsp; #1 Hibbard and

4 a= nd 5 guys, King and Heaton are decent but Gullickson and Robinson at 2 and 3 will have to

ove= rachieve. If Frankfort stays close and gets = to the pen, things look better. Samp= en, Power,

Ber= enguer, Comstock and Landrum make a good setup crew for dominant closer Tom Henke.<= o:p>

Thi= s team has an excellent shot to take the crown.

PAN= DORA BOXERS(89-73)

Don= 't discount defending champion Pandora. With two other very strong teams in the division

the= y have their work cut out, but, this team could pull it off. Start with four boppers with 24 or=

more homers-Jack Clark, Eric Davis, Kal Daniels and Daryl Strawberry, mix in a t= eam .347 OBA,

add= table setters Doran and Magadan and a touch of supporting players like Petralli a= nd Braggs,

stir well, and you have an offense that says contending team. It gets a little more troublesome = when

the= y take the field. 1 and 2 guys Valen= zuela and Swindell will have to overacheive, but Fernandez

and Harkey can trot out 60+ starts of high quality. Franco and Howell will setup stud = closer

Dib= ble, but bullpen overall is pretty thin. This team can not be taken lightly but will go as far as =

the= ir starting pitching allows them. Look for a contender but they need two teams to falter to

rep= eat as champs.

POC= ONO REDSTIXX(81-81)

Len= ny Dykstra and Delino DeShields will create a lot of excitement at the top of = the order, but the

real question is who will drive them in. Winfield is the only guy with 20+ homers and Bichette(15)=

and Santiago(11) are part-timers. No one else has double figure taters. Billy Hatcher offers some

spe= ed and Gene Larkin some on base, but the rest of the group won't be able to contri= bute enough

to = make this team a winner. The rotat= ion is not too bad, McDowell, Leary, Saberhagen, Tewksbury

and Krueger have decent numbers and Neidlinger and Moyer may see some spot starts. Kipper,

Oli= n, R.McDowell and Pena form a good foursome in the pen and Niedenfuer is on ha= nd to help

out= . 81 wins may be asking a lot for th= is team yet they have enough pieces there not to implode.