AMERICAN
LEAGUE WEST PREVIEW

Here's a
quick preview of the 1990 American League West.  I'll give a quick rundown of each team

and who I
think will be contenders and who will be non contenders.  Won-Loss Record is a

projection
using runs created for both the offense and pitching and applying them to the

Bill
James Pythagorean theorem.  I did
this after adjusting runs created for each team to 5500 AB's

and 1450
innings pitched-the average for 1990 National League teams.

BALTIMORE
REDBIRDS(98-64)

On base
percentage is the hallmark of this team.
With a .353 OBA, this team is the league best

and is
.028 over the league average.  And
it runs deep with the top twelve at bat guys all having

OBA's of
.342 or better.  A lot of old
reliables return in Baltimore's quest to reacquire the divisional

title.  Gwynn, Franco, Phillips, Tettleton,
Fitzgerald all return and Barry Bonds begins to emerge

as a huge
presence in the middle of the order.
Rookies Maas and Fryman will help with some

needed
power from the left and right on a part-time basis.  Team speed is a big asset also.

Lots of
familiar faces on the pitching staff and the rotation will be anchored by Viola
and Whitson.

Hough,
Harnisch, Tanana and Wilson form a decent mix and match 3-5.  The bullpen is deep

and
offers plenty of good options when the starters falter.  Very strong contender here.

BROOKLYN
BRIDEGROOMS(77-85)

George
Brett and Matt Williams cover the corners and form a nice middle of the order
punch.

Alomar
will set the table and Calderon and Orsulak are good in supporting roles.  The rest of

the
lineup is shaky and production will drop off sharply after the 5 man bats.  Glavine, Portugal,

and
Candiotti are the big three of the rotation but none is a dominant
pitcher.  The 4 and 5 slots

will be
slopped together, but Tomlin will trot out 13 potentially good starts.  Aguilera and Thigpen

are sharp
in the pen and are supported by decent lefties Orosco and Honeycutt.  With a little luck

and a few
breaks this team could top .500.

CHICAGO
ZEPHYRS(71-91)

The fact
that Chris James is probably the best player says it all for the '90 version of
this team.

Incaviglia
can pound the longball, but he's notoriously hit and miss.  Guillen and Herr, the only

other two
players over 500 ab's had very average years.  Sharperson, Pasqua, Joyner, Leyritz

and
Kennedy will beef up the lineup but all are sub 400 ab guys.  Mike Morgan is the top starter,

but had a
pretty average season.  Appier's the
best but can only trot out 26 times.
Terrell, Gross

and a
cast of thousands don't offer much help.
Robinson, Long, Jones, Hall and Klink have the

most
games of the relievers but shouldn't offer much relief to Chitown fans.  Long season ahead

for the
Zephs.

FRANKFORT
FORTRESS(96-66)

Whereas
the rival Redbirds will wear down pitching staffs by putting runners on base,
the Fortress

will use
the blunt hammer approach and pound the longball.  Led by the large Cecil Fielder,

triumphantly
returning after subduing the Nippon empire, this team will use his 51 taters,
Gruber's

31,
HoJo's 23, and Sierra's, Sosa's, Teufal's, Hayes's and Fisk's double figure
homers to club

opposing
pitchers senseless.  There's also
some good team speed to make this team less than

one
dimensional.  The rub may lie in the
rotation where nobody is an intimidator.
#1 Hibbard and

4 and 5
guys, King and Heaton are decent but Gullickson and Robinson at 2 and 3 will
have to

overachieve.  If Frankfort stays close and gets to the
pen, things look better.  Sampen,
Power,

Berenguer,
Comstock and Landrum make a good setup crew for dominant closer Tom Henke.

This team
has an excellent shot to take the crown.

PANDORA
BOXERS(89-73)

Don't
discount defending champion Pandora.
With two other very strong teams in the division

they have
their work cut out, but, this team could pull it off.  Start with four boppers with 24 or

more
homers-Jack Clark, Eric Davis, Kal Daniels and Daryl Strawberry, mix in a team
.347 OBA,

add table
setters Doran and Magadan and a touch of supporting players like Petralli and
Braggs,

stir
well, and you have an offense that says contending team.  It gets a little more troublesome when

they take
the field.  1 and 2 guys Valenzuela
and Swindell will have to overacheive, but Fernandez

and
Harkey can trot out 60+ starts of high quality.  Franco and Howell will setup stud closer

Dibble,
but bullpen overall is pretty thin.
This team can not be taken lightly but will go as far as

their
starting pitching allows them.  Look
for a contender but they need two teams to falter to

repeat as
champs.

POCONO
REDSTIXX(81-81)

Lenny
Dykstra and Delino DeShields will create a lot of excitement at the top of the
order, but the

real
question is who will drive them in.
Winfield is the only guy with 20+ homers and Bichette(15)

and
Santiago(11) are part-timers.  No
one else has double figure taters.
Billy Hatcher offers some

speed and
Gene Larkin some on base, but the rest of the group won't be able to contribute
enough

to make
this team a winner.  The rotation is
not too bad, McDowell, Leary, Saberhagen, Tewksbury

and
Krueger have decent numbers and Neidlinger and Moyer may see some spot
starts.  Kipper,

Olin,
R.McDowell and Pena form a good foursome in the pen and Niedenfuer is on hand
to help

out.  81 wins may be asking a lot for this
team yet they have enough pieces there not to implode.