AMERICAN
LEAGUE EAST PREVIEW

Here's a
quick preview of the 1990 American League East.  I'll give a quick rundown of each team

and who I think will be contenders and who will be non contenders.  Won-Loss Record is a

projection using runs created for both the offense and pitching and
applying them to the

Bill James Pythagorean theorem.  I did this after adjusting runs created
for each team to 6000 AB's and 1450

innings pitched-the average for 1990 National League teams.

BIRMINGHAM
CLOVER LEAFS(83-79)

No
offensive player jumps out at you, but there are seven batters in double
figures in homers.  Chris Sabo is
the

best of the bunch.  There's a lot of at bats here, so look for plenty of
platoons and mixing and matching versus

certain pitchers.  No
true leadoff types could hurt RBI opportunities of the power guys.  Cole and Downing have the

best OBA's but are part-time players.  The real problem lies in the rotation
where Bobby Witt and Bud Black are 1

& 2
and should really be supporting pitchers for a stud #1, which the Leafs don't
have.  Late pickup Dave Smith was

a good move and could help seal some wins in the closer role.  Team should compete but will need some luck
to pull

off a division title.

BLACK
SWAMP SALAMANDERS(88-74)

Kevin
Mitchell is the heart of the offense and with Reed, Sciosia
and Parker batting in front of him, he should have

plenty of RBI opportunities.
The 5-8 spots are problematic and could drag the offense down in several
games with

limited power, onbase and speed.  The true strength is the big three in the
rotation.  Dave Stewart, Bruce Hurst
and

Oil Can
Boyd all had WHIP's under 1.20, 69 Quality Starts.  These guys will trot out to the mound
105 times for Black

Swamp and
need only keep games close and turn it over to the Eck for the automatic
close.  Definite shot for the title.

CAROLINA LIGHTHOUSE(78-84)

Vince
Coleman and Barry Larkin will set the table for four 20 homer guys(Carter, Wallach, Burks,

and Galarraga).  After those guys it's say a little
prayer for me and all the bonus hitters in the

bottom of the order.
Carolinians will say hello to the Big Hurt(191 ab's) and see hope for the future.

Not much
help will be offered from the pitching staff.  Like Thomas on the offense, Kevin Brown brings

future possiblities.  Abbott and Garrelts
are support pitchers put into the top roles and the pen will be kept

busy all season, not a good sign.
Deep draft next year will keep fans interested.

LAFAYETTE
COLT ALL-STARS(73-89)

When
Harold Reynolds is your best player, it's going to be a long season.  Jay Bell, George Bell,

Chili
Davis and Sid Bream are decent players but it's too little even for a team with
a good starting

staff.  That staff is what will
keep this team from being horrible.
Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan

form a solid front three and McCaskill and Bosio are good 4th and 5th men.  Except for Gene Nelson, the pen looks

pretty average.  Wait
till next for the Colt All-Stars.

LAKE
SUPERIOR WHITECAPS(78-84)

Willie
McGee, Tim Raines and John Kruk are a good start to
the batting order, but, it drops

dramatically after that troika.
Brooks and Jacoby are the power guys, but, they're average at

best. Glenn Davis will help in the 4 hole, but, he's part-time, as are
Wilson and Randolph, who

will help the lineup.  Full
timers Fletcher and Templeton are a lineup drag and catchers are mix

and match part-timers.  Stieb, Melido Perez and Gordan form a decent but not great top three in

the rotation.  Cerutti is below average at #4.  Doug Jones is a good closer, but,
there's not much

cushion between him and the starters.  .500 would be a successful season for
the Whitecaps.

QUIGLEY Q's(94-68)

A first
glance at the Q's offense would leave one to beleive
that their domination of the division is

coming to and end.
Bonilla is a potent force in the middle of the lineup and Fernandez,
Whitaker,

and Henderson are favorites with good years.  Brian Harper is in the second year of a
good five

year run and will make a nice bat at catcher.  The rest of the order is average at
best.  However,

don't start making plans to send the East trophy to Black Swamp or
Birmingham.  This team is

about pitching, pitching and more pitching.  Hanson, DeLeon,
Rijo, Higuera and Smith
form the

best five man rotation in the league and will keep the Q's close in most
games.  When they leave

the game they can turn it over to Farr, Olson and Myers, all who have
closer type numbers.  The

only weakness in the staff is relief depth, but look for the Q's to stretch
out the starters in most games to 7-8 innings.

This team
has an excellent shot at a fourth straight divisional title.