SPB4 – 1977   WIN
SHARE PREDICTIONS

I’m back for a
third attempt at predicting results using Bill James’ Win Share
Method.  The method hit two of three
in 1975 and coming into 1976 had selected the Plainsmen, Serranos,
Barons and Generals for 1976.

The Generals and Barons each
won their national league divisions, but the Magpies took the AL East crown
(Plainsmen finishing a distant 4th) and the Lemmings won the AL West
(Serranos finishing in third).  This was the second time that the
Lemmings have beaten the Win Shares formula.  With two years completed, it seems that
the system has a 50/50 chance of being correct.

Going ahead to 1977,
the Win Shares formula has the Lightning (AL East), Serranos
(AL West), Mud Hens (NL East) and Barons (NL West) coming out on top of their
divisions.  The system predicts that
the Plainsmen, Hired Guns and Comets could threaten the Lightning in the AL
East.  The Lemmings are tagged as
the second best team in the AL West, giving them a third chance to beat the odds.  The NL East Firebugs and Generals will
challenge the Mud Hens.  The
Revenge, Oaks and 5-0’s could make life miserable for the Barons.

The Plainsmen, Hired
Guns and Oaks have the strongest pitching staffs.  The Mud Hens have the strongest everyday
lineup, by a large margin.  George
Foster (Mud Hens), Joe Morgan (Gnomes), Mike Schmidt (Barons), and Dave Parker
(Oaks) are aiming at the NL MVP.
John Candelaria (Zoo Crew),
and Rick Reuschel (Oaks) have their eyes on the NL Cy
Young Award.  Two other NL relievers
could garner votes for both the MVP and Cy Young Awards.  Both Goose Gossage
(Mud Hens) and Bruce Sutter (Revenge) should have big seasons.  Greg Luzinski
(Serranos) and Ken Singleton (Magpies) are the AL MVP
candidates.  Steve Carlton (Hired Guns),
Jim Palmer (Plainsmen) and Tom Seaver (Lightning) are
legitimate AL CY Young candidates.

AL EAST                                 Hit/Field           Pitch                 Total                Adj.
Total                     Expected
W-L

Louisiana Lightning                   196                  143                  339                  315                              105-57

Wright-Patt Plainsmen             170                  119                  289                  268
89-73

Cedar
Rapids Hired Guns         169                  114                  283                  263
88-74

Kenosha Comets                      195
86                   281                  261
87-75

Edmonton Magpies                   199
76                   275                  256
85-77

Rossville
Ramblers                    127
36                   163                  151
50-112

AL
WEST                                Hit/Field           Pitch                 Total                Adj.
Total                     Expected
W-L

Baroda Serranos                      186
95                   281                  261
87-75

Dorsey
Lemmings                     159                  101                  260                  242
81-81

Gotham City Ghosts                 156
94                   250                  232
77-85

Brooklyn Buccaneers                160
62                   222                  206
69-93

East Detroit Shamrocks            129
61                   190                  177
59-103

Pocono
Scouts                         110
71                   181                  168
56-106

NL
EAST                                Hit/Field           Pitch                 Total                Adj.
Total                     Expected
W-L

Toledo Mud Hens                    237
96                   333                  309                              103-59

Frankfort Firebugs                    196                  109                  305                  283
94-68

Lafayette Generals                    185
89                   274                  255
85-77

Bronx Storm                             153                  104                  257                  239
80-82

Astoria Zoo Crew                    155
84                   239                  222
74-88

Harrisville Mountain Men          145
74                   219                  203
68-94

NL
WEST                               Hit/Field           Pitch                 Total                Adj.
Total                     Expected
W-L

Kansas City Barons                  191                  136                  327                  304                              101-61

Montezuma
Revenge                179                  109                  288                  268
89-73

Oakland Oaks                          167                  112                  279                  259
86-76

Hawaii 5-0’s                            189
81                   270                  251
84-78

Anok Island Gnomes                170
91                   261                  242
81-81

Possum Lake Beavers              121
92                   213                  198
66-96