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I’m back f=
or a
third attempt at predicting results using Bill James’ Win Share
Method. The method hit two of=
three
in 1975 and coming into 1976 had selected the Plainsmen, Serranos,
Barons and Generals for 1976.
The Generals and Baron=
s each
won their national league divisions, but the Magpies took the AL East crown
(Plainsmen finishing a distant 4th) and the Lemmings won the AL =
West
(Serranos finishing in third). This was the second time that the
Lemmings have beaten the Win Shares formula. With two years completed, it seems=
that
the system has a 50/50 chance of being correct.
Going ahead to 1=
977,
the Win Shares formula has the Lightning (AL East), Se=
rranos
(AL West), Mud Hens (NL East) and Barons (NL West) coming out on top of the=
ir
divisions. The system predict=
s that
the Plainsmen, Hired Guns and Comets could threaten the Lightning in the AL
East. The Lemmings are tagged=
as
the second best team in the AL West, giving them a third chance to beat the=
odds. The NL East Firebugs and Generals =
will
challenge the Mud Hens. The
Revenge, Oaks and 5-0’s could make life miserable for the Barons.
The Plainsmen, H=
ired
Guns and Oaks have the strongest pitching staffs. The Mud Hens have the strongest ev=
eryday
lineup, by a large margin. Ge=
orge
Foster (Mud Hens), Joe Morgan (Gnomes), Mike Schmidt (Barons), and Dave Par=
ker
(Oaks) are aiming at the NL MVP.
John Candelaria (Zoo Crew),
and Rick Reuschel (Oaks) have their eyes on the=
NL Cy
Young Award. Two other NL rel=
ievers
could garner votes for both the MVP and Cy Young Awards. Both Goose Go=
ssage
(Mud Hens) and Bruce Sutter (Revenge) should have big seasons. Greg Luzinski=
(Serranos) and Ken Singleton (Magpies) are the =
AL MVP
candidates. Steve Carlton (Hi=
red Guns),
Jim Palmer (Plainsmen) and Tom Seaver (Lightnin=
g) are
legitimate AL CY Young candidates.
Wright-Patt Plainsmen &=
nbsp; 170 &=
nbsp; 119 &=
nbsp; 289 &=
nbsp; 268 &=
nbsp; &nbs=
p;
89-73
Cedar
Rapids Hired Guns &n=
bsp; 169 &=
nbsp; 114 &=
nbsp; 283 &=
nbsp; 263 &=
nbsp; &nbs=
p;
88-74
Rossville
Ramblers  =
; &n=
bsp; 127 &=
nbsp;
36  =
; =
163 &=
nbsp; 151 &=
nbsp; &nbs=
p;
50-112
AL
WEST<=
span
style=3D'mso-tab-count:3'> &=
nbsp; &nbs=
p; Hi=
t/Field &=
nbsp; Pitch &=
nbsp; Total &=
nbsp; Adj.
Total &nbs=
p; &=
nbsp; Expected
W-L
Dorsey
Lemmings  =
; &n=
bsp; 159 &=
nbsp; 101 &=
nbsp; 260 &=
nbsp; 242 &=
nbsp; &nbs=
p;
81-81
Pocono
Scouts &=
nbsp; &nbs=
p; 110 &=
nbsp;
71  =
; =
181 &=
nbsp; 168 &=
nbsp; &nbs=
p;
56-106
NL
EAST<=
span
style=3D'mso-tab-count:3'> &=
nbsp; &nbs=
p; Hi=
t/Field &=
nbsp; Pitch &=
nbsp; Total &=
nbsp; Adj.
Total &nbs=
p; &=
nbsp; Expected
W-L
NL
WEST<=
span
style=3D'mso-tab-count:3'> &=
nbsp; &nbs=
p; Hit/Fiel=
d &=
nbsp; Pitch &=
nbsp; Total &=
nbsp; Adj.
Total &nbs=
p; &=
nbsp; Expected
W-L
Montezuma
Revenge =
179 &=
nbsp; 109 &=
nbsp; 288 &=
nbsp; 268 &=
nbsp; &nbs=
p;
89-73
&=
nbsp;