MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Location: file:///C:/68FAC874/1977WinSharePredictions-SPB4.htm Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" SPB4 – 1976 WIN SHARE PREDICTIONS

SPB4 – 1977   W= IN SHARE PREDICTIONS

 

     I’m back f= or a third attempt at predicting results using Bill James’ Win Share Method.  The method hit two of= three in 1975 and coming into 1976 had selected the Plainsmen, Serranos, Barons and Generals for 1976.

     The Generals and Baron= s each won their national league divisions, but the Magpies took the AL East crown (Plainsmen finishing a distant 4th) and the Lemmings won the AL = West (Serranos finishing in third).  This was the second time that the Lemmings have beaten the Win Shares formula.  With two years completed, it seems= that the system has a 50/50 chance of being correct.

     Going ahead to 1= 977, the Win Shares formula has the Lightning (AL East), Se= rranos (AL West), Mud Hens (NL East) and Barons (NL West) coming out on top of the= ir divisions.  The system predict= s that the Plainsmen, Hired Guns and Comets could threaten the Lightning in the AL East.  The Lemmings are tagged= as the second best team in the AL West, giving them a third chance to beat the= odds.  The NL East Firebugs and Generals = will challenge the Mud Hens.  The Revenge, Oaks and 5-0’s could make life miserable for the Barons.

     The Plainsmen, H= ired Guns and Oaks have the strongest pitching staffs.  The Mud Hens have the strongest ev= eryday lineup, by a large margin.  Ge= orge Foster (Mud Hens), Joe Morgan (Gnomes), Mike Schmidt (Barons), and Dave Par= ker (Oaks) are aiming at the NL MVP.  John Candelaria (Zoo Crew), and Rick Reuschel (Oaks) have their eyes on the= NL Cy Young Award.  Two other NL rel= ievers could garner votes for both the MVP and Cy Young Awards.  Both Goose Go= ssage (Mud Hens) and Bruce Sutter (Revenge) should have big seasons.  Greg Luzinski= (Serranos) and Ken Singleton (Magpies) are the = AL MVP candidates.  Steve Carlton (Hi= red Guns), Jim Palmer (Plainsmen) and Tom Seaver (Lightnin= g) are legitimate AL CY Young candidates.

 

AL EAST            =             &nb= sp;        Hit/Field           Pitch            =      Total            =     Adj. Total        &= nbsp;            Expected W-L

Louisiana Lightning        &= nbsp;          196        &= nbsp;         143        &= nbsp;         339        &= nbsp;         315        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         105-57=

Wright-Patt Plainsmen         &= nbsp;   170        &= nbsp;         119        &= nbsp;         289        &= nbsp;         268        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         89-73

Cedar Rapids Hired Guns    &n= bsp;    169        &= nbsp;         114        &= nbsp;         283        &= nbsp;         263        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         88-74

Kenosha Comets        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p; 195        &= nbsp;         86       = ;            = 281        &= nbsp;         261        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         87-75

Edmonton Magpies        &= nbsp;          199        &= nbsp;         76       = ;            = 275        &= nbsp;         256        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         85-77

Rossville Ramblers      = ;            &n= bsp; 127        &= nbsp;         36       = ;            = 163        &= nbsp;         151        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         50-112

 

AL WEST<= span style=3D'mso-tab-count:3'>        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;           Hi= t/Field        &= nbsp;  Pitch        &= nbsp;        Total        &= nbsp;       Adj. Total     &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;  Expected W-L

Baroda Serranos        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p; 186        &= nbsp;         95       = ;            = 281        &= nbsp;         261        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         87-75

Dorsey Lemmings      = ;            &n= bsp;  159        &= nbsp;         101        &= nbsp;         260        &= nbsp;         242        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         81-81

Gotham City Ghosts        &= nbsp;        156        &= nbsp;         94       = ;            = 250        &= nbsp;         232        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         77-85

Brooklyn Buccaneers            &= nbsp;   160        &= nbsp;         62       = ;            = 222        &= nbsp;         206        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         69-93

East Detroit<= /st1:place> Shamrocks        &= nbsp;   129        &= nbsp;         61       = ;            = 190        &= nbsp;         177        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         59-103

Pocono Scouts      &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;      110        &= nbsp;         71       = ;            = 181        &= nbsp;         168        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         56-106

 

NL EAST<= span style=3D'mso-tab-count:3'>        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;           Hi= t/Field        &= nbsp;  Pitch        &= nbsp;        Total        &= nbsp;       Adj. Total     &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;  Expected W-L

Toledo Mud Hens        &= nbsp;           23= 7        &= nbsp;         96       = ;            = 333        &= nbsp;         309        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         103-59=

Frankfort Firebugs        &= nbsp;           19= 6        &= nbsp;         109        &= nbsp;         305        &= nbsp;         283        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         94-68

Lafayette Generals        &= nbsp;           18= 5        &= nbsp;         89       = ;            = 274        &= nbsp;         255        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         85-77

Bronx Storm&nb= sp;            =             &nb= sp;   153        &= nbsp;         104        &= nbsp;         257        &= nbsp;         239              &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;   80-82

Astoria Zoo Crew        &= nbsp;           15= 5        &= nbsp;         84       = ;            = 239        &= nbsp;         222        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         74-88

Harrisville Mountain Men          145        &= nbsp;         74       = ;            = 219        &= nbsp;         203        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         68-94

 

NL WEST<= span style=3D'mso-tab-count:3'>        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;          Hit/Fiel= d        &= nbsp;  Pitch        &= nbsp;        Total        &= nbsp;       Adj. Total     &nbs= p;            &= nbsp;  Expected W-L

Kansas City Barons        &= nbsp;         191        &= nbsp;         136        &= nbsp;         327        &= nbsp;         304        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         101-61=

Montezuma Revenge      =           179        &= nbsp;         109        &= nbsp;         288        &= nbsp;         268        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         89-73

Oakland Oaks            =             &nb= sp; 167        &= nbsp;         112        &= nbsp;         279        &= nbsp;         259        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         86-76

Hawaii 5-0’s        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;       189        &= nbsp;         81       = ;            = 270        &= nbsp;         251        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         84-78

Anok Island Gnomes        &= nbsp;       170        &= nbsp;         91       = ;            = 261        &= nbsp;         242        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         81-81

Possum Lake Beavers        &= nbsp;     121        &= nbsp;         92       = ;            = 213        &= nbsp;         198        &= nbsp;           &nbs= p;         66-96

 

        &= nbsp;