SPB2 - 1975  WIN SHARE PREDICTIONS

     Has everyone seen Bill James' latest book?  He has come up with a new method 
     of evaluating major league players.  The book is called "Win Shares".    
     It is an excellent read and gives you lots to think about.  The concept is based 
     on three win shares for each victory that a team has.  These win shares are then 
     distributed to all the players on the team.  For example, if a team wins 70 games, 
     then it will have 210 win shares to be distributed, based on the player's statistics.  
     Mr. James has calculated the win shares for every player of every season since 1876.

     I thought that it would be fun to use the win share method to predict the won-lost 
     records for our upcoming 1975 season.  Since we have 22 teams, we should have 1,782 
     games and 5,346 win shares (3*1,782).  The Major Leagues in 1975 had 24 teams and 
     our 22 teams divide up these players.  Thus when I added the total win shares, it 
     came to 5,770; which is more win shares than we need with 22 teams.  By dividing 
     5,346 by 1,782 - I got a total of 3.238.  I can then divide each team's totals by 
     this number to get their estimated team wins, subtracting the wins from 162 will 
     get the projected teams' losses.  The following chart will detail the results.

American League East	
                           Win Shares-Hit Win Shares Pitch     Total		Win-Loss
Edmonton Magpies		197		80		79		86-76
Rossville Ramblers		144		110		254		78-84
Frankfort Firebugs		148		82		228		70-92
Kenosha Comets			157		65		222		69-93
Wetumpka Scouts			147		74		219		68-94
Ruppert Mundys			119		65		184		57-105

American League West

Tuscon Toros			203	       139		342		106-56
Toledo Mudhens			226	        95		321		 99-63
Durango Lumberjacks		200	       101		302		 93-69
Lafayette Generals		209		87		296		 91-71
Brooklyn Buccaneers		120		56		176		 54-108

National League East		

Oakland Oaks			215	       137	 	352		109-53
Dorsey Lemmings			202            148		350		108-54
Fayetteville Gnomes		188		89		277		 86-76
Baroda Serranos			161            114		275		 85-77
Montezuma Revenge		136		 88		224		 69-93
Louisiana Lightning		143		 63		206		 64-98


National League West
			Win Share Hit	Win Share Pitch 	Totals		Win-Loss
Hawaii 5-O's			217		124		341		105-57
Cedar Rapids Hired Guns		155		111		266		 82-80
Gotham City Ghosts		165		  70		235		 73-89
Harrisville Mountain Men	144		  72		216		 67-95
Pacific Storm			148		  60		208		 64-98

     It looks like, we could have some good races in the American League West and National 
League East.  The National League West is loaded with the most talent, based on the 
Win share formula.