| WIN SHARE PREDICTIONS FOR 1955 | |||||||||
| Position | Adjusted | ||||||||
| Player | Pitcher | Total Win | Total Win | ||||||
| Wins | Wins | Shares | Shares | Wins | Losses | Finish | |||
| AMERICAN LEAGUE | |||||||||
| LAFAYETTE COLTS | 171 | 145 | 316 | 279 | 93 | 61 | 1st | ||
| SOUTH RIVER GLADIATORS | 215 | 84 | 299 | 264 | 88 | 66 | 2nd | ||
| WEST WARWICK MONARCHS | 162 | 107 | 269 | 237 | 79 | 75 | 3rd | ||
| SALZBURG BISHOPS | 192 | 73 | 265 | 234 | 78 | 76 | 4th | ||
| LOS ANGELES SURFERS | 152 | 108 | 260 | 230 | 77 | 77 | 5th | ||
| BROOKLYN BRIDGE | 155 | 76 | 231 | 204 | 68 | 86 | 6th | ||
| NORTH MICHIGAN COMETS | 134 | 96 | 230 | 203 | 68 | 86 | 7th | ||
| NATIONAL LEAGUE | |||||||||
| EVANSTON ELEPHANTS | 187 | 115 | 302 | 267 | 89 | 65 | 1st | ||
| FRANKFORT FORTRESS | 201 | 98 | 299 | 264 | 88 | 66 | 2nd | 0.882883 | |
| ROSSVILLE HORNETS | 161 | 109 | 270 | 238 | 79 | 75 | 3rd | ||
| GOSHEN ACES | 177 | 81 | 258 | 228 | 76 | 78 | 4th | ||
| DAYTON FLYERS | 168 | 80 | 248 | 219 | 73 | 81 | 5th | ||
| PORTLAND BEAVERS | 174 | 73 | 247 | 218 | 73 | 81 | 6th | ||
| HAMPTON ROADS CRUISERS | 114 | 55 | 169 | 149 | 50 | 104 | 7th | ||
| 2363 | 1300 | 3663 | 3234 | 1078 | 1078 | ||||
| The Win Shares Method by Bill James can help give us a sneak preview to the 1955 season. I took | |||||||||
| the Win Shares listed in James' book and added them up for each SPB-2 franchise. The first column | |||||||||
| will list the position players' values (offense and defense), while the second column gives pitcher's | |||||||||
| contributions. The totals will give us Estimated Win Shares for each team. I had to multiply each Win | |||||||||
| Share total by 0.883 (the difference between a 16 team Major League and a 14 team SPB-2 League. | |||||||||
| Since 3 Win Shares equals an Estimated Team Win, I just divided the new totals by 3 to get estimated | |||||||||
| team wins. As an example the Flyers had 248 win shares * 0.883 for 219 Adjusted Win Shares. | |||||||||
| Divide 219 by 3 and you get an estimated 73 Wins for the 1955 Flyers. | |||||||||
| How did the system work in 1954? It had predicted a Hornets win in the AL, with the Gladiators a close | |||||||||
| second. The Whales got the nod in the NL with the Elephants predicted for 2nd place. The Gladiators actually | |||||||||
| finished first in the AL with the Hornets coming in 2nd. The system did not get it right, but came very close. | |||||||||
| Not so in the NL. The Bridge (predicted for 6th place) claimed the top spot with the Comets finishing second. | |||||||||
| The Elephants came in a close 3rd while the Whales (now the Colts) finished 4th. The system did not recognize | |||||||||
| the ability of the Bridge's pitching staff to step up and complement their strong offense. | |||||||||
| 1955 AMERICAN LEAGUE | |||||||||
| The Colts were predicted to finish 1st in the NL last year (as the Whales) and their switch to the AL did | |||||||||
| not change their top billing. Last year's AL champ, the Gladiators should give the Colts a tough fight for 1st. | |||||||||
| The Colt's have the top pitching staff with a chance for four 20-game winners (Nuxhall, Score, Sullivan, Wynn). | |||||||||
| The Gladiators have the top offense led by Mays, Musial and Al Smith. The Monarchs, Bishops and Surfers are | |||||||||
| too close to call, in the next three spots. The Bridge and Comets should fight for 6th and 7th. The Bridge | |||||||||
| pitching staff is actually stronger than last year's. Could another upset be in their future? | |||||||||
| 1955 NATIONAL LEAGUE | |||||||||
| The Elephants get the nod for top spot in the NL, with a close second for the Fortress. The Elephants have | |||||||||
| the top pitching staff while the Fortress will try to pound and run their way to the top. The Hornets have just | |||||||||
| enough hitting and a strong pitching staff, that should cement 3rd place and give the top teams a scare. The | |||||||||
| Aces, Flyers, and Beavers will fight for the next three spots. Last place is pretty much guaranteed for the | |||||||||
| Cruisers. They have the weakest hitting and pitching in SPB-2 and will need to look forward to another year. | |||||||||