WIN SHARE

PREDICTIONS FOR 1967

Position

Total

Adjusted

Player

Pitcher

Win

Total Win

Wins

Wins

Shares

Shares

Wins

Losses

Finish

AMERICAN LEAGUE

LINCOLN GRAYS

203

110

313

283

94

68

1st

FLUSHING RATS

187

108

295

266

89

73

2nd

POCONO
PELICANS

190

90

280

253

84

78

3rd tie

FRANKFORT
TIGERS

177

102

279

252

84

78

3rd tie

MACKINAW STRAIGHTS

179

91

270

244

81

81

5th

ROSSVILLE CUBS

169

88

257

232

77

85

6th

LAFAYETTE BLUE SOX

155

84

239

216

72

90

7th

CLEVELAND SPIDERS

157

73

230

208

69

93

8th

LAS VEGAS THUNDER

146

74

220

199

66

96

9th

NATIONAL LEAGUE

ROCKFORD FOREST CITYS

211

117

328

296

99

63

1st

HOLLYWOOD STARS

187

131

318

287

96

66

2nd

DAYTON TRIANGLES

197

118

315

284

95

67

3rd

BROOKLYN WONDERS

187

80

267

241

80

82

4th

ALMA RIFLES

173

88

261

236

79

83

5th

SCHAUMBURG SAXONS

157

102

259

234

78

84

6th

EVANSTON BLACK SOX

171

77

248

224

75

87

7th

ELKHART ELECTRIC EELS

158

82

240

217

72

90

8th

ASHEVILLE TOURISTS

130

95

225

203

68

94

9th

1458

1458

The Win Shares Method by Bill James can
help give us a sneak preview to the 1967 season.  I took

the
win shares listed in James' book and added them up for each SPB1
franchise.  The 1st column

will
list the position players values (offense and defense), while the second
column gives pitcher's

contributions.  The totals will give us Estimated Win
Shares for each team.  I had to
multiply each Win

Share
total by 0.903 (the difference between a 20 team Major League and a 18 team
SPB1 League).

Since 3 Win
Shares equals an Estimated Team Win, I just divided the new totals by 3 to
get estimated

team
wins. As an example the GRAYS had 283 adjusted  win shares and divided by 3 gives them
an

estimated
94 wins.  Since we play a 162 game
season, then their estimated losses would be 68.

Is this system accurate?  It may give us a snapshot of how
strong/weak our team is, but it doesn't

account
for manager skills or the "bounce of the baseball".  Last year the system had picked the
Cubs

to win the AL
and the Rifles to win the NL.  The Cubs
finished one game behind the Spiders, while the

Rifles
did win the NL.  This is the closest
that the system has come to naming the champs.  Of course

the
Spiders had been predicted to finish 5th, with a predicted 85 wins, but
finished with 103.

1967

AMERICAN LEAGUE

The American League is not as strong
this year, but four teams seem to be poised at a run for the

flag.  The Grays had a disappointing 1966, but
have a lot of firepower in '67, with Aaron and Killebrew

ready
to launch the longball.  McCormick,
Nolan, and Downing will anchor the pitching staff.  The Rats

have
Lou Brock at the top and Carl Yastrzemski in the middle, with Gaylord Perry
"loading" it up.

The
Pelicans and Tigers round out the top of the division.  The Pelicans have a solid offense with
Pinson,

Hundley,
Carew and T. Davis.  The Tigers will
counter with Adolpho Phillips, Blair, Cash and McMullen.

The
Straights are the perfect 5th place team with a predicted 81-81 record.  Just remember that last

year's
team that was supposed to finish fifth ended up grabbing the pennant.  The Straights have Al

Kaline,
Tim McCarver, and Dick McAuliffe.  The
Cubs fall in 1967, after last year's 102 wins.  Rick still

has
Ron Santo, Frank Howard and Pete Rose.
Jim Kaat will be hard pressed to repeat his 1966 Cy

Young
season, though.  The Spiders have an
even bigger fall ahead, according to Win Shares.  The

Spiders
should see a 34 game tumble in the standings.   Richie Allen and Dean Chance will try to
keep

the
1966 World Series champs in the hunt.
The Thunder have George Scott, Tommie Agee and Catfish

Hunter,
but are dreaming of the time when Reggie Jackson can be the "straw that
stirs the drink".

1967

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Last year the National League was lucky
to have two teams finish above .500.
But, this is 1967

and
the Forest Citys enter the year with a big target on their backs.  The Win Shares system gives

them a
predicted 99 victories.  Terry has the
top rated offense/defense with Wynn, Mantle, Morgan,

and
Pete Ward.  He's got Tiant and Boswell
as starters and a nasty closer in Abernathy.
The Stars

will
use their deep pitching to challenge as Don has 5 strong starters (Gibson,
Queen, Sadecki,

Singer,
and Stottlemyre).  Fregosi, Haller, and
R. Smith will lead the offense.  The
Triangles will round

out
the challengers using Cepeda, Stargell, B. Williams, Bunning (last year's NL
Cy Young winner),

and
Jim Merritt.  The Wonders are always
tough to predict and they look like a .500 team for 1967.

Pete
has Tom Seaver to anchor his pitching staff and Allison, Freehan and Wills
for offense.  The Rifles,

Saxons, and
Black Sox are in the hunt for spots 4 through 7, with the Wonders.  The Rifles have

Clemente
and McCovey to pound the ball.  The
Saxons counter with Oliva and Horton.
The Black Sox

have
Mays, Staub, and Joe Horlen.  The
Electric Eels could "shock" the other teams and move up the

standings
with Curt Flood, Don Mincher, and Frank Robinson.  The Tourists look to be visiting the
NL

cellar, but Jim
Ray Hart, Fergie Jenkins, and Gary Peters will do their best to get some
"W's".

I hope that everybody enjoys these
predictions and wish you the best of luck in the upcoming 1967

Season's Past
Baseball session.